The Ngozi Okonjo Iweala Poll and Atedo Peterside Foundations, in a poll conducted in September 2022, has revealed that Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party would win the presidential election if it is conducted today.
The poll indicated a three-horse presidential contest between Peter Obi, Bola Tinubu of the APC, and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party came fourth in the poll.
In a statement by organisers of the poll, “The results showed a significant lead for Mr Peter Obi with 21% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% each proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who are both tied in second place. Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 3% of voters proposing to vote for him,”
In the poll, Obi’s 8% lead at this early stage is not enough to separate him completely from a leading pack of candidates scoring 21%, 13% and 13% respectively.
It revealed that undecided voters and those who did not reveal their candidate add up to 32% and 15% respectively. It added that gender difference of 39% women and 27% male voters are undecided on a candidate.
According to the poll, registered voters in each of the zones are as follows – 99% in the North East, 90% in the South South, the North Central and the North West respectively. The lowest registered voter percentages were in the South East with 88% and the South West with 85%.
“When asked if respondents were aware of the various candidates vying for the Presidency, data gathered showed that 99% of the respondents were aware of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. 98% were aware of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. 95% were aware of Mr. Peter Obi of LP and 74% were aware of Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP. All other candidates scored below 55% in terms of name recognition.
“Furthermore, the data summarizes top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, these include: – The need to tackle insecurity (45%), the Economy (20%), Education (9%), Unemployment (7%) and Poverty alleviation (4%).
“46% of the respondents would love to see their preferred Presidential candidates participate in a televised interview and/or debate, with the interview/debates spanning across topics like their party manifestos, issues of Security, Economy, Education, Job Creation, Healthcare and Agriculture amongst others.
“It is worthy of note that 69% of those aged 18-25, 76% of those aged 26-35, 77% of those aged 36-45, 87% of those aged 46-60 and 89% of those aged 61+ responded saying that they would definitely vote in the coming elections. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 46-60 and 61+ years. On average, the Poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next presidential election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the February 2023 elections. Furthermore, Mr. Peter Obi led the pack in virtually all the age categories i.e. his leadership was not confined to the youths only.
“While these Poll results show some significant trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters, as it appears they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.
In summary, our September 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner, as the undecided voters are large enough to turn the tables. However, ANAP Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the 4 leading candidates only.”
The presidential election will hold in February 2023, INEC will declare campaigns to start on September 28.