President Tinubu, Atiku, Obi, Kwakwanso – 2027 Presidential Race
By Onorakpene Eviosekwofa
Since May 29, 2023, President Tinubu’s style of governance has been defined by harsh economic hardship, soaring inflation, crashed naira, and a huge sense of hopelessness by Nigerians. These are irrefutable facts that will determine his fate in the 2023 general elections.
However, president Tinubu has displayed the fact that he has the ‘spirit of a cheerful giver’ when it comes to matters of election that directly concerns his person and interest.
Any body who will discount the role of money in the 2027 general elections must be living in Allison’s wonderland. As in past elections, especially since 1999, money has been a critical factor in the determination of election outcomes.
As ‘a cheerful giver’, ahead of the 2027 election, Tinubu is expected to win the support of the ‘North’ by showering voters with mouth-watering wads of Naira. As it is said in local parlance, “Na corn dem dey take catch fowl.” Considering the abject poverty that has been the lot of most Nigerans, buying their votes with a few pieces of Naira for another 4 years of poverty would be as easy as taking a piece of biscuit from hands of a 1 year old child!
Also the role of a well-articulated, robust, strategic and proactive opposition cannot be waved aside, what is happening today in the Labour Party, LP, and the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, if the leadership of the parties allow it to continue to fester and it is not resolved, president Tinubu, without any strong coalition of opposition at the polls, will just grab victory and run with it into Aso Rock.
Talking about opposition, there seems not to be any credible party in sight at this moment. The Social Democratic Party, SDP, the latest bride for politicians who have become born again to kick out Tinubu from Aso Rock in 2027, is rumoured to be Tinubu’s ‘Plan B’ choice if he had failed to secure the presidential ticket of the APC in 2023. And so, those running to the SDP may just be running into a pool that will drown them at the polls in 2027 – Nasir El-Rufai and Atiku Abubakar, etcetera, are on my mind.
As for the LP’s Peter Obi, he’s the face, body and soul of the LP. Obi’s presidential ambition for 2027 is as uncertain as the sun rising from the East, no thanks to the battle for the chair of the party by Julius Abure albeit the Supreme Court’s verdict on his term. The good news is that INEC is presently ‘studying’ the judgment of the Supreme Court on the validity of Abure’s term with a view to settle the politically-induced imbroglio on the LP. However, one fact remains clear, if Obi should walk away from the LP, the gra-gra, huffing and puffing of the NLC and Abure over the chairmanship/ownership of the party will automatically stop. And this brings me to the question: where should Obi be headed?
The media PR of Atiku-Obi coalition may be a politically correct idea but with a stubborn, deep pocket, master-of-the-game, Tinubu, in the race for the 2027 presidential election, the road to Aso Rock may be filled with giant, deep pot holes that will require personal egos to be dropped if they are truly passionate to dislodge Tinubu from Aso Rock.
The grapevine is rife with rumours of a political ‘marriage’ between president Tinubu and the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP, Rabiu Kwakwanso. As a master strategist, Tinubu understands the fact that elections are all about getting the numbers of votes in any election. I believe this political marriage is a fine deal.
Lest we forget, in the 2023 presidential election, president Tinubu won the election. It’s interesting to note the number of votes that other candidates received. Below is a breakdown of the votes scored by the 4 leading presidential candidates.
– Bola Tinubu – 8,794,726
– Atiku Abubakar – 6,984,520
– Peter Obi – 6,101,533
– Rabiu Kwankwaso – 1,496,687
If Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar had sacrificed their personal ambition to run on a single ticket of the PDP, they would have defeated Tinubu at the polls. Perhaps, the calculation of the figures of Atiku and Obi may have triggered the haste for Tinubu to start ‘coercing’ PDP governors to defect to the APC. Also, having Kwakwanso on his side will further mitigate whatever effect that an Atiku-Obi coalition may have on Tinubu’s 2027 reelection aspiration. Only time will tell.